Executive Summary: Talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine on May 16 occurred under low expectations, resulting in high diplomatic posturing despite the discussions resulting in minimal progress Western leaders have pushed for a ceasefire, prompting renewed engagement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 16, in Istanbul, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met for the first time in more than three years of war to discuss a ceasefire. The Kremlin rejected this Western-backed initiative, countered with an old set of ceasefire preconditions, and introduced more insurmountable... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has escalated its campaign against Russian energy targets, striking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Kropotkinskaia oil pumping station (OPS) in February. The CPC pipeline is Kazakhstan’s primary export route, handling 80 percent of its crude oil, and the strike on the Kropotkinskaia... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is unwittingly contributing to the rise of Islamism in Dagestan by failing to address social and economic problems and by handing over the region to siloviki who view all protest there as Islamist. The problems in Dagestan and elsewhere in the North... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian economy is stagnating as a result of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, making signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense one of the only ways to make money. Between March and April, the number of Russians willing to join the... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia advanced operational bloc-building at their May 2025 summit, issuing dense agreements and three joint statements that laid out a shared strategic vision across defense, technology, law, and multilateral governance. The summit marked a shift from... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is mulling how to attract or force Russians not officially employed into the workforce in response to a growing labor shortage resulting from demographic decline, the difficulties of attracting and retaining immigrants, and the Kremlin’s military expansion. The Kremlin presents the effort... MORE

Executive Summary: Celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War were used to reinforce Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal authority and militaristic agenda, recasting Russia’s war against Ukraine as a continuation of heroism from World War II. Ukraine rejected Putin’s three-day ceasefire initiative... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping showcased deepened political and military ties during Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations, affirming a shared global vision through strategic declarations on stability and international law. Their joint statements emphasized sovereignty,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia will celebrate Victory Day on May 9, marking 80 years since the end of World War II, a moral and existential victory that the Kremlin wields to legitimize its present-day war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “Great Patriotic War” narrative excludes... MORE