Executive Summary: Russia will celebrate Victory Day on May 9, marking 80 years since the end of World War II, a moral and existential victory that the Kremlin wields to legitimize its present-day war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “Great Patriotic War” narrative excludes... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s shadow war against Poland combines low-level sabotage, insider espionage, informational warfare, and cyber‑attacks. Between 2010 and 2025, Polish authorities closed 30 subterfuge cases, leading to the arrests of 61 individuals—19 cases and 49 arrests since 2021—accounting for roughly 35 percent of Europe’s Russian-linked... MORE

One of the weakest points in the survivability of President Vladimir Putin’s regime is the Russian economy. On April 24, Putin assured Russian business leaders that the country’s economic challenges are part of a planned “soft-landing” to curb inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov declared this week that he wants to retire from his position as head of the Chechen Republic but acknowledged that only Russian President Vladimir Putin could release him. Putin agreed to meet with him and appears to have turned down his... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has shifted May 9 Victory Day celebrations from honoring the sacrifices of Soviet troops in World War II to a tool for justifying Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow’s attempts to monopolize “victory” over the Nazis ring hollow in Ukraine, whose own... MORE

Executive Summary: For more than six years, Bashkortostan has been the site of larger and more prolonged protests and greater repression than any other region of the Russian Federation, especially since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The protests and repression... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 11 in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin called on the Ukrainian side to observe the ceasefire, but noted that the Russian army would retaliate in case of violation. Ukrainian officials report... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has offered to mediate U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, positioning itself as a helpful intermediary with clear interests in securing benefits from any potential agreement. Moscow’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear talks would enhance its influence in the nuclear weapons supply chain through proposals to... MORE

Executive Summary: As Ukraine marks 39 years since the Chornobyl disaster, Russian forces continue to pose new nuclear threats as Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine continues. Russia continues to occupy Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency warn that... MORE

Executive Summary: Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While... MORE