Personnel Problems Are Becoming Personal Problems for Xi Jinping
Executive Summary: A lack of viable challenger suggests that Xi Jinping will remain in power, even if he is more vulnerable today, and his power more curtailed, than in years past. Personnel purges of Xi’s allies across the top echelons of the military since 2023... MORE
He Weidong’s Possible Downfall and Xi’s Trust Deficit With the PLA
Executive Summary: Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong’s absence from an important public event, one attended by all Politburo members except him, suggests that he is either seriously ill or under investigation. The latter possibility would suggest that Xi Jinping may have lost confidence... MORE
‘Strait Thunder-2025A’ Drill Implies Future Increase in PLA Pressure on Taiwan
Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations against Taiwan on April 1–2 consisted of multiple drills that had limited interconnection, distinguishing them from exercises that tend to be more complex and confrontational. Recent training reforms have meant that drills now tend to involve more cross-service... MORE
Sweden’s SÄPO Reports that Russia is Evolving Sabotage Tactics
Executive Summary: Sweden’s Security Service warns of an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe. Sweden’s recent accession to the North Atlantic... MORE
The Cyberspace Force: A Bellwether for Conflict
Executive Summary: Cyber operations will be involved in the opening stages of any conflict that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is involved in. This makes the Cyberspace Force an essential bellwether as to what conflicts Beijing anticipates and what conflicts it is tacitly preparing... MORE
The PRC Sees ‘Window of Opportunity’ With Europe
Executive Summary: Beijing sees a strategic window of opportunity to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe and improve its economic and trading relationship with the European Union. Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Party's International Department have used a... MORE
Russia Increasing Military Presence in Africa by Reviving Desert Airbase in the Libyan Sahara
Executive Summary: Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa. A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make... MORE
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Emerges as Competitor to Kazakhstan’s Rail Network
Executive Summary: Kazakhstan launched a new container rail service linking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Poland, reinforcing its position as a vital transit hub through Eurasia. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a part of the PRC’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, has emerged as... MORE
Russia Develops Infrastructure for Operational Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons from Belarusian Territory
Executive Summary: Since 2022, significant military construction has occurred in Asipovichy, Belarus, including new Iskander-M missile systems hangars, ammunition storage, and barracks at Military Unit 61732 (465th Missile Brigade). Satellite imagery confirms the near completion of facilities designed to support a new missile brigade with... MORE
Territorial Disputes no Longer Threaten Peace and Stability in Central Asia
Executive Summary: The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan resolved the last major border conflict in Central Asia through the Agreement on the Junction Point of the State Borders of the Three Countries signed in Khujand, Tajikistan, on March 31. The resolution of border issues... MORE